What Is France s Capital the Economist Has Again Named What
Europe | Macron v Le Pen, once more
The race to exist the side by side president of French republic enters the final stretch
The two finalists go head-to-head in the closing phase of the campaign
T HERE WERE 12 candidates to pick from, but in the stop the French chose the same presidential finalists as in 2017. In the first round of voting on April 10th, Emmanuel Macron, the centrist president, came superlative, with nearly 28%. Marine Le Pen, a populist nationalist, came 2d with 23%. In the run-off in 2022 Mr Macron beat Ms Le Pen by a resounding 66% to 34%. When voters return to the polls on April 24th to cull the next president, the result is likely to be far closer.
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Three features of the vote stand out. First, Mr Macron drew 1m more votes than in 2017, pushing his score four points college to the best first-round result for an incumbent president since François Mitterrand in 1988. Mr Macron may be unloved, but, partly thanks to his competent management of the economic system, the pandemic and European affairs, his approval rating is over 40%—higher at the end of his term than his two predecessors, François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy (though neither of those got a second term).
Second, the event confirmed the full collapse in presidential politics of the mainstream parties on both the left and the right. In 2022 the Socialists' and Republicans' candidates between them secured 26% of the vote. This time, they could non fifty-fifty muster 7%. Neither scored even the 5% minimum to authorize for maximum reimbursement of campaign expenses. Valérie Pécresse, the Republicans' nominee, pleaded for donations, proverb she is now personally €5m ($5.4m) in debt. Even Yannick Jadot of the Greens, a movement in tune with the times, failed to reach five%.
The flipside of Mr Macron's remarkable success at edifice a broad centrist church, however, is the 3rd and more sinister element of this vote. The combined score for all populist, radical and extremist candidates was nearly 58%, sharply upward from just beneath 50% in 2017. Tactical voting may take inflated this total. The radical-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon supplied the biggest surprise, coming in third with 22%. Half of this booty, co-ordinate to one poll, came from Socialists, Greens and others on the left who hoped to keep Ms Le Pen out of the run-off. Merely much of the populist total is truly extreme. Amidst those eliminated was Eric Zemmour, a toxic far-correct former television receiver pundit, who scored 7%.
The strength of the populist vote reflects deep discontent. Many voters decline outright the pro-European, broadly liberal centrism on offer from Mr Macron, with his sharp suits, diplomas and abstract nouns. Both Ms Le Pen and Mr Mélenchon, who jointly secured 45%, speak to this anger in one-time industrial cities, rundown tower blocks and rural France. In the northern former mining hamlet of Auchy-les-Mines, Ms Le Pen scored a massive 48% in the starting time circular. In Seine-Saint-Denis, a depressed banlieue n of Paris, Mr Mélenchon bagged 49%.
The 2 finalists are now dorsum on the campaign trail. Ms Le Pen can look 82% of the far-right vote that went to Mr Zemmour, says a Harris Interactive poll. Mr Macron tin can promise for 54% of the Greens' vote, 52% of the Socialists', and 46% of Mrs Pécresse's. She, Mr Jadot and the Socialists' Anne Hidalgo, every bit well as the Communists' Fabien Roussel, all urged voters to back Mr Macron to go on out Ms Le Pen. Notwithstanding none of these eliminated candidates has many voters to offer, and a lot of them will abstain.
Instead the key to the second round is in the hands of those who backed Mr Mélenchon in the beginning. On election night, the sharp-tongued, 70-year-erstwhile radical urged his supporters non to requite "a single vote" to Ms Le Pen. But some of his vote is primarily anti-institution and anti-liberal. This makes it less compatible with the pro-European Mr Macron, who wants to raise the retirement age from 62 years to 65, than with Ms Le Pen, who promises to lower fuel prices and the pension historic period. She, like Mr Mélenchon, is anti-NATO, Eurosceptic and pro-Russian federation. Around a third of Mr Mélenchon's voters say they will now dorsum Mr Macron; xx% will support Ms Le Pen. The residual are undecided, or likely not to vote.
On Apr 11th Mr Macron took his campaign to hostile territory in northern France's former mining basin. He stopped in Carvin, a village that put Ms Le Pen top, followed by Mr Mélenchon. Sitting in Le Bellevue café, Mr Macron declared himself "the candidate who speaks to anybody" and said that he would fight Ms Le Pen'south ideas "until the last 2d". His pension-age hike, he said, could be phased in more gradually. Firms that pay high dividends could be compelled to give employees revenue enhancement-free bonuses. She, meanwhile, is posing as the "candidate of unity", who would bring calm subsequently the anarchy.
As French minds plough to the difficult selection ahead, the candidates will come nether greater scrutiny. 1 concern will be Ms Le Pen's past sympathy for Russia'south Vladimir Putin. Another will be her plans for "national preference" for French citizens, in jobs and benefits, a directly clash with European union law. "A Le Pen presidency would turn French republic away from the Franco-German axis towards Republic of hungary and Poland," says Tara Varma, of the European Council on Foreign Relations. "They are trying to transform the European union from the inside."
With little time left, a crucial moment will be a televised debate on Apr 20th. In 2022 Ms Le Pen was woefully unprepared. This time, she will be better briefed. Her task will exist to come across equally a competent leader-in-waiting; Mr Macron'southward volition be not to appear condescending. On April twelfth The Economist's election model gave Mr Macron an 81% probability of winning, against 19% for Ms Le Pen. He remains the clear favourite, only information technology is not over withal. ■
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This article appeared in the Europe department of the print edition under the headline "Macron v Le Pen, again"
From the Apr 16th 2022 edition
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Explore the editionSource: https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/04/16/the-race-to-be-the-next-president-of-france-enters-the-final-stretch
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